Russia’s numerical advantage in the war against Ukraine is likely to begin to decline by the end of 2024. Russia is now facing very serious difficulties amid heavy losses, according to Business Insider.
American military analyst Michael Coffman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in Russia, said that Russia’s battlefield advantage is likely to diminish as winter approaches and into 2025.
Although Russia continues to put pressure on Ukraine, Coffman emphasized that he believes Moscow will not be able to maintain its offensive pace for long. He also added that Russian equipment and resources are being depleted, despite replenishing losses from old Soviet stockpiles.
Coffman states that Russia is depleting its Soviet-era resources, and the production rate of equipment is relatively low compared to the losses it is experiencing on the battlefield.
He also drew attention to tactical changes in the Russian army.
The analyst says that the Russian military has been forced to alter its tactics to minimize losses, which in turn reduces its ability to achieve significant operational breakthroughs.
In addition, Coffman points to signs of tension in Russia’s recruitment campaign. In recent months, Moscow has been offering large bonuses to recruits, which, according to the analyst, indicates problems with recruitment.
He noted that, at the current rate of losses, Russia’s contract recruitment campaign is unable to keep pace.
The UK Ministry of Defense has also noted a sharp increase in casualties among Russian troops. According to intelligence reports, Russia has probably suffered its highest daily casualties since the beginning of the war.
